Short Talks: InVEST in Practice
March 18, 2020 - 8:30 am to 10:00 am
Jacobson-Sorensen Hall 123
InVEST in Practice features a diverse set of case studies where InVEST was used to answer questions related to land use change, urbanization, climate change, conservation, restoration, etc. and their effects on Ecosystem Services (ES). These case studies span a breadth of geographies (North America, Central America, South America, Africa and Asia) and feature a number of different models including blue carbon, water yield, coastal vulnerability, nutrient delivery, carbon, and others. The session will include short talks from a number of presenters followed by Q&A and open discussion.
Session Lead: Allison Bailey, Research Data Scientist at the Natural Capital Project
- Katie Warnell, Policy Associate at Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University
- Title: Applying InVEST for coastal resilience and blue carbon planning in North Carolina
- Abstract: North Carolina’s coastal habitats provide many ecosystem services, including coastal protection and carbon storage, but flood events and projected sea level rise are raising concerns about the long-term persistence of these habitats and the services they provide. We used InVEST coastal vulnerability and coastal blue carbon models, parameterized for North Carolina with national and state-level data and input from coastal managers and other experts, to assess the current distributions of those services. Future changes to coastal habitats and ecosystem services were considered by running the models for scenarios developed from The Nature Conservancy’s Resilient Coastal Sites project. Results were used to identify areas of existing coastal habitat that protect coastal assets, and where habitat restoration or creation has the greatest potential to increase service provision. This information is being used in several planning efforts in North Carolina, including the Natural and Working Lands Plan and the Coastal Habitat Protection Plan. We will be expanding this analysis to the rest of the eastern seaboard and exploring how the results can be integrated into existing data platforms for use by decision-makers. This new phase will also consider more complex blue carbon issues, such as restoring wetlands’ tidal flows to reduce methane emissions.
- Marcello Hernández, Independent Researcher
- Title: Coastal ecosystem services modeling in Latin America to design conservation and restoration strategies: The case of mangroves in Guatemala and El Salvador
- Abstract: We modeled the coastal protection and blue carbon ecosystem services provided by the mangroves of the Paz River Basin (El Salvador and Guatemala) using InVEST, with the goal of supporting the Regional Coastal Biodiversity Project of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in determining priority mangrove areas to conserve and restore. For the coastal protection model, we produced a set of 10 maps containing the ecological, physical and social spatial data (e.g. geomorphology, sea level rise, shore exposure) that determine the level of protection that mangroves provide. We also produced a set of 10 maps using the blue carbon model, including carbon stocks in three points in time (2020, 2050 and 2050), net sequestration and the economic value of these services. We developed an ecosystem services combined index to calculate priority conservation areas, from which we estimate there are approximately 1,741 hectares of mangroves that provide the highest coastal protection and blue carbon services. Furthermore, we identified 318.9 hectares in both countries that have a potential for restoration, and then we identified which of these areas would provide the coastal protection service with the highest intensity.
- Nadia Selene Zamboni, PhD Student at Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil)
- Title: Effects of Land Use Changes on Blue Carbon Services in Brazilian Mangrove Areas
- Abstract: Mangroves are an important Coastal Blue Carbon (CBC) ecosystem, providing climate regulation and other services worldwide. However, the demand for several economic activities, has led to land use changes which can impact mangrove carbon services. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects of land conversions during a future period of 33 years (2017-2050), on the dynamics of mangrove systems and changes in the delivery of CBC services in the Brazil’s northeast region. We developed future scenarios of mangroves conversions by applying the InVEST Scenario Generator tool and historic conversion rates obtained from the analysis of hybrid images of remote sensing. Maps of future mangrove species distribution were subsequently used to estimate carbon stocks and emissions, total Net Carbon Sequestration (NCS) and Net Present Value (NPV) by using the InVEST CBC model. Based on our mangrove conversion emergent trends analysis and field studies, forest area could decrease by almost 35% and total carbon stored by 22.2% by 2050, driven largely by the expansion of salt ponds. The total NCS could reach about (mean=17.3 tCO2e×ha-1×yr-1; sd=6.9), and the NPV (2017) approximately (mean=US$2,044.3×ha-1; sd=357.3). Although apparently no large variations in NCS values would occur between periods within the 33 years, high values of carbon emissions (mean=1,351.2 tCO2e×ha-1; sd=20.3) could be observed during 2017-2035. Results allow to understand the CBC services dynamics of Brazilian mangroves, the importance of protecting them and the need to restrict the progress of high-impact activities over these ecosystems.
- Kwadwo Kyenkyehene Kusi, Mohammed V University
- Title: Assessing the effects of the principal land use changes on multiple ecosystem services in Morocco, North Africa.
- Abstract: This paper used InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) to quantify and map multiple ecosystem services in Morocco, North Africa from 1992, 2003 and 2015. The results show that cropland, herbaceous cover and urban areas were the main land uses that had significant increase by 0.3%, 1.7%, and 0.1% whereas natural vegetation and bare areas decreased by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively between 1992 and 2015. This caused an increase in nitrogen and phosphorus export from 52.7 Mt and 3.9 Mt in 1990 to 54.8 Mt to 4.1 Mt in 2015, respectively. Carbon storage decreased from 2522 Mt to 2492 Mt whereas the water yield increased from 43 × 10^9 m3 to 43.8 × 10^9 m3 in the 23 years due to the decline of natural vegetation and forests. Soil export rather increased from 4633 Mt in 1992 to 4701 Mt in 2015. Overall, there was an improvement in ecosystem services in Morocco from 2003 to 2015 compared to 1992 to 2003. The future of a sustainable management of ecosystem services in Morocco is to incorporate the analysis of multiple and crucial ecosystem services and an efficient agricultural production in relation to these services.
- Laura Costadone, PhD Candidate at Portland State University
- Title: The impact of urbanization on water quality and ecosystem services provided by a major urban lake
- Abstract: The overall focus of this study is to assess how urbanization can impact water quality and ecosystem services of a major urban freshwater system. Central Puget Sound, one of the United State's fastest growing regions, and Lake Sammamish, a major recreational destination and valuable natural resource within the region, were selected as study systems. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) nutrient delivery model was used to map phosphorus loads across the region. Values of phosphorus export (Kg/ha) generated by the InVEST models served as inputs to a dynamic, deterministic total phosphorus simulation model developed and applied to Lake Sammamish. Three different land use scenarios that illustrate land development resulting from a range of possible management policies, strategies and plans were evaluated. Results revealed that by 2070 the expansion of urban development within the watershed will increase external P input to the lake by more than 30%. Consequently, the increased level of external phosphorus loading will likely lead to higher productivity and water quality impairment in Lake Sammamish. Under these scenarios, strict implementation of nutrient management practices will be necessary to offset the negative impact of urbanization on water quality and related ecosystem services.
- Bhagawat Rimal, College of Applied Sciences (CAS)-Nepal, Tribhuvan University
- Title: Assessing Urbanization Process and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Southern Nepal.
- Abstract: Globally, unplanned rapid urbanization has been a major challenge of ecosystem services. Urban ecosystems are limited not only to the ecological infrastructure within the city core but also the city outskirts. Land cover dynamics and assessment of the variation in ecosystem services (ES) is essential to implement appropriate land use activities and to expand the ES. Nepal is a rapidly urbanizing developing country, however, the effect of land cover changes on ecosystem service has been only partially explored and this study attempted to fill the gap. For the historical land cover change analysis and its effect on ecosystem, Landsat time-series satellite images from 1988 to 2016 are evaluated and, urban expansion is simulated for 2026 and 2036 using CA-Markov model and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) tools. Analysis explored that increased built-up area has reduced the previous forest and agriculture land. The finding also shows that the expansion in built-up area significantly impacted all ecosystem services; however, three important ES (food production, carbon storage and habitat quality) were particularly affected and the trend is likely to continue in the future. We recommend for the sustainable urban planning and its implementation for the controlled loss of ecosystem services.